Prediction of Shuai Zhang vs Darya Astakhova at W100 Takasaki 11-21-25

• When examining recent second serve performance, Shuai Zhang has not won any points, while Darya Astakhova has managed to secure 36.43%. This indicates a significant advantage for Astakhova.
• Why might return game stats be important in predicting match outcomes? Darya Astakhova has demonstrated superior return stats, winning 51.13% of second serve points and 36.00% of first serve points compared to Zhang's 0% in both categories. This gives Astakhova a decisive edge.
• Analyzing under pressure scenarios, Zhang has saved 0% of breakpoints, whereas Astakhova has a 44.53% saving rate, indicating better performance under stress for Astakhova.
• In overall performance over the past year, Zhang has not won any matches. In contrast, Astakhova has won 61.11% of her matches, showcasing a more consistent playing record.
• Astakhova's best career surface is Clay, with an impressive record, whereas her performance on Grass is notably weaker. This suggests surface considerations could be relevant, depending on the match setting.
• Looking at player level, Zhang has not participated in ranked matches recently, while Astakhova has a commendable win rate of 62.50% in Challengers/ITF tournaments.
• Considering the quality of opponents, Astakhova has competed against players with an average ranking of 324.75, providing some context for her matchups.
• In deciding sets, Astakhova has a 60% success rate, whereas Zhang has never won one, giving Astakhova an edge in prolonged matches.
• Break point conversions show another stark difference: Zhang has converted none, while Astakhova boasts a 38.69% conversion rate, suggesting Astakhova is more effective at capitalizing on these opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (November 21, 2025, UTC):

When analyzing the players' recent performances, Darya Astakhova clearly has the upper hand in several key areas that are crucial for predicting match outcomes. Her superior second serve performance and return game statistics highlight her advantage in both service games and return games.

Astakhova's ability to perform under pressure is notably better, as evidenced by her breakpoint saving rate, which suggests she can handle critical moments in matches more effectively than Shuai Zhang.

With a solid record of wins over the last year, compared to Zhang's lack of matches, Astakhova presents a more consistent and competitive profile. Her impressive deciding set performance reinforces the notion of her resilience and ability to come through in tight situations.

Based on these statistical insights, Darya Astakhova is likely to be the winner in the upcoming tennis match against Shuai Zhang.